Published
2017-12-23

Elicitación de la distribución multinomial a partir de varios expertos

Multinomial distribution elicitation from various experts

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15332/2422474x.2884
Yurledy Montoya Espinosa
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Juan Carlos Correa Morales
Universidad Nacional
PDF (Spanish)

Abstract (en)

The objective of this work is to implement an elicitation process to estimate the vector of parameters π to multinomial distribution through of Delphi method. Quantification of opinions and beliefs from multiple experts are used to obtain a single distribution that represents the knowledge of all experts that is a different result to get the sum of individual contributions.

 

 

Keywords (en): a priori distribution, bayesian statistics, binomial distribution, multinomial distribution, subjective probability.

Abstract (es)

El objetivo de este trabajo es implementar una metodologa de elicitacion mediante el metodo Delphi que permita estimar el vector de parametros de la distribucion multinomial a partir de la cuanticacion de opinion y creencias de multiples expertos, buscando as conseguir un resultado diferenciador y de mas valor que la suma de aportaciones individuales para obtener una unica distribucion que represente el conocimiento del conjunto de expertos.

 

Keywords (es): Distribución a priori, distribución binomial, distribución multinomial, estadística bayesiana, probabilidad subjetiva.
Yurledy Montoya Espinosa, Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Estudiante de Maestra, Escuela de Estadstica, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede
Medelln

Juan Carlos Correa Morales, Universidad Nacional
Profesor Asociado, Escuela de Estadstica, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medelln

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How to Cite

Montoya Espinosa, Y., & Correa Morales, J. C. (2017). Multinomial distribution elicitation from various experts. Comunicaciones En Estadística, 10(2), 207-223. https://doi.org/10.15332/2422474x.2884

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