Variaciones previsibles del ingreso y su efecto sobre el consumo. Un análisis para la economía colombiana
Predictable variations of income and its effect on consumption. An analysis for Colombian economy
Abstract (en)
In this paper a review of the theories that explain the determinants of household consumption is performed. Based on seasonal variations in income of the Colombian economy, an estimate of predictable income is made. Using a VAR(p) model, evidence is found in favor of the relationship between predictable income to household consumption, the hypothesis of excess sensitivity of consumption is supported (Flavin, 1981). It is concluded that for the Colombian economy, consumers do not incorporate all the available information to establish their consumption path. Therefore predictable variations in the available income, caused by changes in the level of taxes or subsidies, generate additional variation in aggregate purchases of the household.
Abstract (es)
En este trabajo se realiza una revisión de las teorías que explican los determinantes del consumo de los hogares. Con base en variaciones estacionales del ingreso de la economía colombiana se realiza una estimación del ingreso previsible. Utilizando un modelo VAR(p) se encuentra evidencia a favor de la relación entre ingreso previsible hacia el consumo de los hogares, se apoya la llamada hipótesis de exceso de sensibilidad del consumo (Flavin, 1981). Se concluye que para la economía colombiana los consumidores no incorporan toda la información disponible para establecer su senda de gastos. Por lo cual, las variaciones previsibles en el ingreso disponible, causadas por cambios en el nivel de impuestos o subsidios, generan variaciones adicionales en las compras agregadas de los hogares.
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