Incidencia de los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la inversión extranjera directa en Colombia durante el periodo 1990-2010
Impact of oil prices in economic growth and foreign investment in Colombia for the period 1990-2010
Abstract (en)
The macroeconomic effect derived from the change in oil prices can be representative and have a marked impact. Its effects may be influenced by market specific aspects of the hydrocarbon sector, supply shocks and demand dynamics, denoting the particular criteria for fixing oil prices and the corresponding volatility. This document verifies the impact oil prices have had on growth and foreign direct investment in Colombia in the period between 1990 and 2010, through the use of an econometric model (VAR) with one (1) lag on the variables considered. The results of this study show that there is no evidence that oil prices have an impact on the growth of the Colombian economy and foreign direct investment.Abstract (es)
El efecto macroeconómico derivado de la variación de los precios del petróleo puede llegar a ser representativo y de marcada incidencia. Dicha afectación puede estar influenciada por aspectos propios del mercado del sector de hidrocarburos, los choques de oferta y la dinámica de su demanda denotando así particularidades en el criterio para la fijación de los precios del crudo y su correspondiente volatilidad. Este documento verifica la incidencia que han tenido los precios del petróleo en el crecimiento y en la inversión extranjera directa para Colombia en el periodo comprendido entre 1990 y 2010, a través del uso de un modelo econométrico (VAR) con un (1) rezago sobre las variables consideradas, entregando como resultado que no existe evidencia que los precios del petróleo tengan incidencia sobre el crecimiento de la economía colombiana y sobre la inversión extranjera directa.
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