Fluctuaciones económicas bajo régimen de cambio fijo en una economía pequeña con dos sectores
Economic fluctuations on fixed rate in a small economy with two sectors
Abstract (en)
This paper presents a theoretical model of aggregate supply and demand that helps explain the propagation effects of economic policy and the terms of trade on macroeconomic aggregates in a small open economy with two sectors and under a fixed exchange rate regime. Contrary to traditional results, a devaluation does not affect real economic activity but causes inflation. Likewise, an increase in the price of export product causes two simultaneous effects. Increases aggregate supply because by increasing output in the export sector and rises aggregate demand. Depending on which effect dominates, domestic prices might increase, decrease or remain constant.Abstract (es)
Este trabajo presenta un modelo teórico de oferta y demanda agregada que permite explicar la propagación de los efectos de la política económica y de alteraciones en los términos de intercambio sobre las variables macroeconómicas en una economía pequeña con dos sectores productivos bajo un régimen de cambio fijo. Contrario a los resultados tradicionales, una devaluación de la moneda local produce una contracción económica en el corto plazo y aumenta el nivel de precios. De igual manera, el incremento de los precios del producto de exportación muestra dos efectos simultáneos. Afecta la oferta agregada por el estímulo a la producción del sector, y por otro lado, acrecenta la de- manda agregada. Dependiendo de cuál efecto domine sobre la economía, entonces, los precios domésticos pueden aumentar, disminuir o permanecer inalterados.
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