La demanda de dinero y las innovaciones financieras en Venezuela: equilibrio de largo plazo
The demand for money and financial innovations in Venezuela: Balancing long term
Abstract (en)
Given the lack of consensus on the impact of financial innovations on money demand, this paper investigates on the stability of the long-run demand for real balances in Venezuela facing financial innovations for the period 1984Q1- 2008Q4 and by means of cointegration analysis. Two proxys for financial innovation were used: the ratio currency/deposits (CD) and a ratchet variable (RCD) built on the previous one. Empirical evidence suggests that there exist a stable long-run relationship among the log of real balances, the log of real income, the real interest rate, the inflation rate, the depreciation of domestic currency and RCD and this relationship could be interpreted as a demand for real balances. Results reveal that when new financial instruments are introduced, the demand for real balances diminishes. This suggests that economic agents allocate resources differently affecting their portfolio composition and the demand for real money. This result is typical in economies with high and persistent inflation rates, balance of payment crisis, exchange rate instability and political and economic uncertainty.Abstract (es)
Dado que los resultados obtenidos en la literatura no muestran consenso sobre el impacto de las innovaciones financieras en la demanda de dinero, este trabajo investiga sobre la estabilidad de la demanda de dinero de largo plazo en Venezuela en presencia de innovaciones financieras durante el periodo: 1984Q1- 2008Q4 mediante un análisis de cointegración. Para ello, se construye la razón circulante/depósitos (CD) y una varia- ble ratchet (RCD), a partir de la anterior, a objeto de medir el efecto de las innovaciones financieras. La evidencia empírica revela que existe una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo entre el logaritmo de los saldos reales, el logaritmo del nivel del ingreso real, la tasa de interés real, la tasa de inflación, la tasa de depreciación de la moneda local, y las innovaciones financieras, pudiendo interpretarse esta relación como una demanda dine- ro. Esto sugiere que cuando se introducen nuevos instrumentos financieros, se produce una disminución en la demanda de saldos reales, lo cual induce a pensar que los agentes económicos realizan una reasignación de sus recursos que afecta la composición del portafolio, y por tanto, la demanda de dinero, siendo este evento muy propio de econo- mías caracterizadas por elevadas y persistentes tasas de inflación, problemas de balanza de pagos, inestabilidad en el mercado cambiario e incertidumbre económica y política.
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