Impact of climate change on agricultural insurance
Impacto del cambio climático en los seguros agrícolas
Resumen (es)
El cambio climático plantea importantes retos para los sistemas agrícolas, especialmente en regiones vulnerables como Nigeria, donde la agricultura es la principal fuente de ingresos y motor económico. Este estudio investiga el impacto del cambio climático en los seguros agrícolas, examinando cómo la variabilidad de la temperatura, los cambios en los patrones de precipitaciones y los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos influyen en las pérdidas de rendimiento de los cultivos, el comportamiento de los agricultores a la hora de presentar reclamaciones y los ajustes de las primas. Mediante un diseño de investigación cuantitativa con un enfoque de encuesta transversal, se recopilaron datos de 300 agricultores y 84 profesionales del sector de los seguros utilizando un cuestionario estructurado. El análisis utilizó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales de mínimos cuadrados parciales (PLS-SEM) para evaluar las relaciones entre las variables latentes, garantizando la fiabilidad y la validez mediante el alfa de Cronbach, la fiabilidad compuesta, la varianza media extraída y la relación heterotraits-monotraits (HTMT). Los resultados revelaron efectos significativos de los factores climáticos en los riesgos agrícolas: los cambios en los patrones de precipitación (β = 0,673, p < 0,05) mostraron la influencia más fuerte en las pérdidas de rendimiento de los cultivos, seguidos de los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos (β = 0,568, p < 0,05) y la variabilidad de la temperatura (β = 0,412, p < 0,05). El comportamiento de los agricultores a la hora de presentar reclamaciones se correlacionó positivamente con la frecuencia de las reclamaciones (β = 0,721, p < 0,05) y la gravedad (β = 0,694, p < 0,05), lo que a su vez afectó significativamente a los ajustes de las primas (β = 0,635, p < 0,05). El modelo demostró una gran capacidad explicativa, con valores R² de 0,64 para las pérdidas de rendimiento de los cultivos y de 0,58 para los ajustes de las primas, respaldados por índices de ajuste aceptables, como SRMR = 0,062 y valores negativos del criterio de información bayesiano (BIC) en todas las construcciones. Estos resultados subrayan el papel fundamental de los seguros agrícolas en la mitigación de los riesgos inducidos por el clima y ponen de relieve la necesidad de productos innovadores para mejorar la equidad y la accesibilidad de los seguros agrícolas.
Resumen (en)
Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural systems, particularly in vulnerable regions like Nigeria, where farming serves as a primary livelihood and economic driver. This study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural insurance by examining how temperature variability, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events influence crop yield losses, farmers’ claim filing behavior, and premium adjustments. Employing a quantitative research design with a cross-sectional survey approach, data were collected from 300 farmers and 84 insurance professionals using a structured questionnaire. The analysis utilized Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to assess relationships among latent variables, ensuring reliability and validity through Cronbach’s Alpha, Composite Reliability, Average Variance Extracted, and the Heterotrait-Monotrait Ratio (HTMT). Results revealed significant effects of climate factors on agricultural risks: changes in rainfall patterns (β = 0.673, p < 0.05) exhibited the strongest influence on crop yield losses, followed by extreme weather events (β = 0.568, p < 0.05) and temperature variability (β = 0.412, p < 0.05). Farmers’ claim filing behavior was positively correlated with claim frequency (β = 0.721, p < 0.05) and severity (β = 0.694, p < 0.05), which in turn significantly affected premium adjustments (β = 0.635, p < 0.05). The model demonstrated strong explanatory power, with R² values of 0.64 for crop yield losses and 0.58 for premium adjustments, supported by acceptable fit indices such as SRMR = 0.062 and negative Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values across constructs. These findings underscore the critical role of agricultural insurance in mitigating climate-induced risks and highlight the need for innovative products to enhance equity and accessibility in agricultural insurance.
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